Former President Trump has taken the lead among Jewish voters in deep-blue New York. According to a Siena Research Institute poll released Tuesday, Trump has the support of 50% of likely Jewish voters in New York, slightly ahead of Vice President Harris, who garnered 49% of respondents’ support.
This slim lead for Trump represents a significant shift from previous polls, where President Biden had a stronger lead among Jewish voters. In June, Biden led Trump 52% to 46% among likely Jewish voters in the state. The political landscape changed dramatically when Biden dropped out of the race last month and endorsed Harris, who quickly secured the Democratic nomination.
Harris’s rise to the top of the Democratic ticket has raised concerns among some supporters of Israel. They worry that her support for the Jewish state has weakened, particularly since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Gaza Strip. Harris was the first administration official to call for an “immediate cease-fire” in March and to warn of “consequences” for Israel if it proceeded with a planned invasion of Rafah, a city in Gaza.
Harris has also faced scrutiny over her relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. She has sometimes appeared to avoid direct answers about whether Netanyahu has become an “obstacle to peace.” Harris emphasized the need to prioritize security and dignity for both Israelis and Palestinians, acknowledging the high number of innocent Palestinian casualties.
The poll results come just before Harris selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, the only Jewish candidate in the running. This decision has led to speculation that Shapiro’s lack of popularity within the Democratic Party, which has shown more sympathy toward Palestinians since the Gaza conflict, influenced Harris’s choice.
Despite these dynamics, Jewish voters have historically supported Democratic candidates. An analysis by the American Enterprise Institute found that, since 1968, Jewish voters have favored Democrats over Republicans by an average margin of 71% to 26%. In the 2020 election, Jewish voters supported Biden over Trump 68% to 30%, and in 2016, they chose Clinton over Trump by a margin of 71% to 26%.
However, the poll brought some good news for Harris as well. She solidified her lead over Trump among all likely voters in New York, with a 53% to 39% advantage according to the latest poll. This is a significant improvement from the eight- to ten-point lead Biden had in earlier polls.
