Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has decided not to seek reelection to a third term, two people familiar with the decision say, and is poised to make an announcement next week.
Ernst, 55, has been wrestling with the decision for months, but began telling friends in recent days.
Her retirement creates an open Senate seat in Iowa. Rep. Ashley Hinson is making plans to jump into the race, one GOP official says. National Republicans, anticipating Ernst’s retirement, have long said they believe Hinson would be a strong candidate.
A crowded field of Democrats is already running. The party’s primary field includes state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian wheelchair basketball player, state Sen. Zach Wahls, Knoxville Chamber of Commerce executive director Nathan Sage and Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris.
CBS first reported Ernst’s decision.
Ernst has come under fire since responding “we are all going to die” to a constituent at a town meeting who raised concerns about Medicaid cuts in Trump’s policy megabill.
She was first elected in 2014 on a pledge to cut government spending with her signature slogan: “Make ‘em squeal.” As the Republican Party has evolved under President Donald Trump, Ernst has often struggled to strike a balance between GOP voters identifying with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement and those who don’t.
A decade ago, Iowa was a critical swing state won by Barack Obama twice and then by Donald Trump in 2016. The state swung partially back in Democrats’ favor in 2018, with Democratic candidates winning three of Iowa’s four US House seats. But Republicans have dominated since then — winning all statewide races except auditor, a post held by current Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and ultimately claiming all four House seats.
Trump won there by 8 percentage points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024.
However, Iowa Democrats point to the party’s stronger performance compared to 2024 results in special elections this year — including a victory in a conservative state Senate district this week — as evidence that the tide could turn in 2026.
Democrats, needing a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate in next November’s midterm elections, are seeking to expand the field of potentially competitive GOP-held seats.
The party’s top target is an open-seat race in North Carolina. But Democrats also aim to be competitive in some combination of Maine, where Democratic Gov. Janet Mills this week said she is “seriously considering” running against GOP Sen. Susan Collins; Ohio, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown is attempting to mount a political comeback by running against incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted; and Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn faces a stiff primary challenge from conservative firebrand Attorney General Ken Paxton — who Democrats view as a more favorable general election opponent.
Ernst’s retirement marks the end of a significant chapter in Iowa politics. Her 2014 victory symbolized a push for limited government, fiscal responsibility, and an end to Washington’s waste. Her signature “Make ‘em squeal” campaign resonated with everyday taxpayers tired of bureaucrats spending with abandon.
The race to replace her will now test Iowa’s direction. Ashley Hinson, who has built a reputation as a practical, common-sense conservative, is seen as the frontrunner to carry forward a platform that prioritizes fiscal discipline and strong national security.
Democrats, meanwhile, are banking on special election wins to argue momentum is on their side. But history tells another story: Iowa voters in recent years have consistently rejected progressive overreach in favor of leaders who focus on freedom, individual responsibility, and economic growth.
The Senate majority will be on the line in 2026, and Iowa’s open seat will be central to that fight. For conservatives, keeping this seat red is about more than party labels — it’s about ensuring Washington doesn’t veer further toward the reckless spending, soft-on-security policies, and big-government programs Democrats are pushing.
